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The Ministry of Agriculture of China announced that by the middle of this year, the number of live pigs after the raging African swine fever will fully recover. New outbreaks of viruses and other deadly swine diseases may pose a risk to this prospect.

Lin Guofa, a senior analyst at the consulting firm BRIC Agriculture Group, said that in the colder northern provinces, the resurgence of swine fever cases has prompted farmers to slaughter more breeding sows before the Lunar New Year. Pork is the favorite meat of the Chinese, and consumption during the holidays usually surges.

Lin said other viruses, such as foot-and-mouth disease and swine epidemic diarrhea, have also caused losses in the epidemic that has been exacerbated by harsher winters than usual. "The recovery of pigs in some areas may be delayed, especially in Shandong and parts of Henan and Hebei," he said.

This means that as many as 15% of the country's live pig herd may disappear due to disease in the winter, and it is more likely to fully recover to the pre-swine fever level in the second half of 2022. Chief consultant Wang Zhong said. He said that in Systematic, Strategic & Soft Consulting Co., the outbreak included new variants of swine fever that have proven difficult to detect and more difficult to control.

Since the outbreak of swine fever in the world's largest pig herd in China in 2018, stabilizing the number of live pigs and reducing market fluctuations have been the top priorities of policymakers. Without an officially approved vaccine, the epidemic has reduced the number of live pigs by nearly half, stimulating pork imports and soaring prices.

In recent months, due to the rapid recovery of the government's promotion of the quantity, the global agricultural market has further turmoil, resulting in a severe shortage of feed grains, and granaries as far away as North America have been empty.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of the end of November, the number of live pigs in China had returned to 90% of the normal level. The ministry did not respond to faxes seeking comment on its latest forecast.

Lin of the BRIC countries said that efforts to speed up the release of imported meat (estimated to be about 1 million tons) in ports and cold storage should help curb pork prices. At the same time, live pig futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit its highest closing price on Monday since the contract debuted last month.

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